88,000 homes of all shapes and sizes were for sale in Texas, according to recent data released by Reventure. Best of all, much of the new inventory in Texas is affordable at least relative to new home prices in many other markets.
The 88,000 homes on the market in Texas represents nearly 10% of the total inventory of 800,000 homes available nationwide and the highest housing availability in the state since 2019. And Reventure’s data shows that another 222,000 housing permits were applied for in the Lone Star State in 2023.
AND THERE’S MORE ROOM TO GROW. Builders enjoy plenty of space between its large metro areas to keep building suburbs and exurbs.
25,000 Business Relocations + Attractive Housing Opportunities = Robust Growth
Texas gained more jobs than any other state in the previous decade from businesses relocating from other parts of the country, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. More than 25,000 establishments relocated to Texas from 2010 to 2019, bringing more than 281,000 jobs with them and resulting in a gain of nearly 103,000 jobs for the state. Dallas-Plano still leads the US in employment markets following calculations for 2023.
The state’s robust economic growth hasn’t come without side effects. As Texas’ population and economy boomed, its home prices and rents skyrocketed. This puts more pressure on renters and makes it increasingly difficult for tenants to become homeowners. And housing production can’t keep pace with household growth, U.S. Census data shows, contributing to the state’s steep rise in housing costs.
Luxury Market Resilience
With confidence in the long-term investment in real estate, people that have money are more willing to accept higher rates and payments. They are floating high-rate mortgages now and planning to refinance when the rates drop, reports Valor Capital, calling the current real estate market “a study of fluctuating tides.”
Affordable Home Seekers Stretch Marketing Area Boundaries
As prices continue to swell the major metros are showing slight population declines. While debates over zoning reforms rage as cities seek to retain a more diverse population, major housing development activity continues to advance to the far corners of the major metro areas in every direction.
Home Sizes Shrink
According to fourth quarter 2023 analyses, median single-family square floor area came in at 2,156 square feet, the lowest reading since the beginning of 2010. And home sizes will continue to trend lower as housing affordability remains constrained. Note the home sizes that builders are planning for some of the new communities mentioned below.
HOUSTON
M/I Homes and Johnson Development Services joined forces in 2021 to develop the new 238-acre community of Sorella, near Mueschke Road in Cypress northwest of Houston. Homes starting as low as $300,000 are now available.
Two new home collections offered by Toll Brothers at The Enclave at The Woodlands are selling quickly. The Villa and Select Collections feature modern architecture with open-concept floor plans that range from 2,211 to 3,117+ square feet of seamless living space. Home buyers can select from 12 sophisticated single-level and two-story designs on 50- and 60-foot-wide home sites. The collections offer 3 to 5 bedrooms, 2 to 4.5 bathrooms, and 2- or 3-car garages.
DALLAS
Josephine Is the Up and Coming Hotspot
Josephine spans the border of Collin and Hunt Counties, 45 minutes northeast of Dallas. And it’s the fastest-growing city in Texas, according to census data. The city’s population grew from 2,131 to 6,944, between 2020 and 2022—a leap of 225.86%.
D.R. Horton has launched three developments thusfar in Josephine, where buyers can still find homes starting under $250K. Waverly Estates offers a variety of single-family homes to choose from that range from 1,253 to 2,660 square feet. Riverfield floorplans range in size from 1,294 to 2,645 square feet. Horton’s Magnolia community is set to include another 1,600 homes in Josephine initially, with room for more.
Dallas-area homebuilder Robbie Hale has added another neighborhood in Josephine. At High Meadow Estates, buyers can build homes from the low $400s on half acre homesites.
The Fast-Growing City of Fate Approves Plans for a Huge Mixed-Use Development
Northeast of Dallas in Rockwall County, Fate’s $800 million Lafayette Crossing project is located between Ben Payne Road and Crawford Avenue, on Interstate 30. It will include 267 acres of commercial and residential construction including 186 single-family homes. More than 30 acres will be set aside for parks and open space.
Celina’s Remaining Land Opportunities Swiftly Dwindling
Due North of Dallas, Celina and the Collin County cities surrounding have been the hotspots over the past several years. And the population swell continues as long-planned projects come to fruition.
Construction of Uptown Celina is ramping up as Rockhill Capital & Investments gets lots ready for one of its first single-family home neighborhoods. The Ranch at Uptown Celina will feature 450 homes by Taylor Morrison and Toll Brothers across 150 acres. In all, the Uptown Celina community will feature four distinct single-family neighborhoods spanning over 675 acres. At completion, the master planned community expects to provide approximately 2,500 housing units. Neighborhoods within Uptown Celina will intentionally offer a variety of lot sizes and home styles, including single-family homes, paired homes and multi-family homes, appealing to a mix of buyers with different lifestyles.
Celina is also the focus for Hillwood this year. Ramble by Hillwood is a new 1,380-acre community two miles north of downtown Celina, stretching from Preston Road to Custer Road. The initial phase is set to break ground late this year with the first phase of approximately 700 homes planned. Builders include American Legend Homes, Coventry Homes, Drees Custom Homes, Highland Homes and Perry Homes with average home prices anticipated to be around $600,000. In all, some 4,000 single-family homes are planned at the new Hillwood community.
Lennar’s Home Sizes Answer to a Changing Market
South of Dallas near the border of Dallas and Ellis Counties in Cedar Hill, Lennar’s Addison Hills will span nearly 69 acres located approximately three miles south of Belt Line Road on S. Duncanville Road. Planned to break ground in April, this planned development district will feature 246 lots, offering a variety of single-family homes. The majority of these homes will boast a minimum size of 2,000 square feet. However, recognizing the diverse needs of the community, about a tenth of the homes will be as cozy as 1,440 square feet.
CENTRAL TEXAS
The highest concentration of available land in the state is in Central Texas. Austin, San Antonio, Killeen and Waco all feature land availability that significantly outpaces the national average.
AUSTIN
Landsea Home Sizes Answer to a Changing Market
Kyle provides a convenient housing alternative to living in Austin and Landsea Homes Corporation has announced another new development there near its existing community, Freedom at Anthem. Parkton Square will offer single-family homes and attached condos.
Single-family homes in the Parkton Square neighborhood in Kyle will range from 1,400 to 2,900 square feet with floorplans offering three to five bedrooms and options for the primary bedroom on the first floor. The attached condos will range from 1,492 to 1,590 square feet with three bedrooms and two-and-a-half bathrooms. Pricing has not yet been announced. Homes are expected to being selling later this fall.
SAN ANTONIO
Best San Antonio Neighborhoods for Investors
In San Antonio, some of the neighborhoods with the greatest growth potential include Southtown, Medical Center, and North Central, according to a recent post by Bluebonnet Property Management. “These areas are known for their potential for rapid appreciation and are often more affordable than some of the other neighborhoods in the city,” says Bluebonnet.
“In addition to these neighborhoods, the Downtown area of San Antonio is also experiencing rapid growth. With the development of new businesses, restaurants, and entertainment venues, the downtown area is becoming increasingly attractive to potential investors,” Bluebonnet says, adding that Medical Center, Alamo Heights, and the East Side are also seeing steady growth and the West Side is becoming increasingly popular as well. And the post notes that neighborhoods such as The Colony, Olmos Park, and Helotes are often overlooked by investors due to their lesser-known status (outside of the local area).
Texas counties also claimed eight of the top 10 spots for most new residents, with Harris County gaining 53,000 people to lead the way. Collin County added over 36,300 people. Denton and Tarrant counties attracted over 27,000 new residents each.
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