DFW is Named The Top Real Estate Market in the U.S.
Known for its economic vibrancy, diverse population, and steady growth, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex will capture even more attention from real estate investors and developers in being named the top real estate market in the United States for 2025. Denton County remains one of the fastest-growing counties. It, and another 12 counties typically associated with the DFW Metroplex have seen growth. And more counties to become engulfed into the giant Metroplex soon. (See DFW Activity Report below)
What Happened to Austin’s $250 Million Bond for Affordable Housing?
In 2018, politicians and activists proposed a $250 million bond for affordable housing. Nearly 73% of voters cast a ballot in favor of the affordable housing bond, the biggest in Austin’s history, reports KUT News in Austin.
Instead of spending millions to preserve or build affordable housing, Austin’s plan instead was to use the taxpayer money to buy land. The plan was to build thousands of homes people earning low incomes could afford on the city-owned plots of land. According to the KUT News report. Austin finalized deals on 60 acres of land it purchased between 2020 and 2022, spanning from Cullen Lane in South Austin to Kramer Lane in North Austin.
But while the city had to spend the bond money within a certain period of time, there was no timeline for construction. And four years out, almost all of this land remains vacant. The city says it still needs to hold meetings with neighbors to decide exactly what, in addition to affordable housing, will be built. It anticipates being ready to invite private companies to start bidding on building contracts by 2030. As voters grow restless and angry about the delay, Austin cites a lack of staff and limited funding as reasons why it hasn’t moved forward any faster.
San Antonio Starting to Surpass Austin in Home Starts
Predictions for San Antonio indicate it is well on its way to becoming a national leader in single-family home production within the next five to seven years. Indeed the signs are beginning to show, with San Antonio outpacing Austin home starts for the second consecutive quarter.
Affordability is the main reason. Experts predict that, by 2030, the city could emerge as another tech tub, drawing talent away from Austin due to its affordability. A post by CTOL Digital Solutions reports that San Antonio’s median home price at $312,000 as of September 2024—significantly less than Austin’s median price of $425,000.
For comparison, In Q3 of 2024 Austin’s 16,663 starts show a relatively modest 11% growth compared to last year. Dallas remains the top player in the Texas homebuilding market, with 46,635 starts in Q3 2024, also an 11% increase from the previous year. And Houston reported 38,128 home starts in Q3, a 14% year-over-year increase. But San Antonio bests them all percentage-wise with impressive 33% increase in home starts, positioning itself as a major player in the broader Sun Belt region.
The San Antonio figure for Q3 was 17,751 new home starts, thanks to commitments by builders including Lennar and KB Homes. Additionally, Johnson Development Services and Heartwood Development have ambitious plans to construct a 2,000-home community on 800 acres in San Antonio’s Far West Side. An easier permitting processes is also believed to be a contributing factor that draws builders and investors to San Antonio.
CTOL says analysts predict a 30-40% appreciation in San Antonio home prices over the next decade. They anticipate that investment in the outskirts of San Antonio, particularly the Far West Side, could yield returns of 200-300% if developed within the next decade.
As the South and East Get Crowded, Houston Area Developers Look Northwest
Areas to the south like Katy and to the east like Cypress are inching towards buildout. So new home community growth for 2025 will continue in the northwest area, enticing owners seeking easy access to employment centers in The Woodlands or the Energy Corridor.
Houston-based Bold Fox Development will soon deliver the first of 1,200 homes in Attwater. The 470-acre community is in Waller, 44 miles northwest of downtown Houston. Prices range from about $300,000 to more than $500,000 in the new neighborhood at the northwest corner of FM 362 and Owens Road.
DFW Extends All the Way to the Oklahoma Border
With development extending all the way to the northern state border with Oklahoma, growth is heading to Cook and Fannin Counties (on either side of already burgeoning Grayson County) north of Dallas. The areas north of Fort Worth, especially around the AllianceTexas development and Haslet continue to see extensive residential growth.
Texas, in fact, has a redrawn boundary running through Lake Texoma. State officials recently redrew an underwater Texas-Oklahoma boundary in order to officially return a pump station back to the Texas side. Redrawing the state line under Lake Texoma is part of an agreement that equally swaps 1.34 acres of land and corrects an issue created during the 2000 redrawing of the state boundaries that caused the Lake Texoma Raw Water Pump Station to straddle state lines. It also ensures the availability of about 30% of the drinking water supply for more than 2 million people in North Texas, the Texas General Land Office announced Thursday.
Long Established Southern Areas Growing Too
While North Texas home growth numbers have been primarily driven by the newer suburban cities north of Dallas and Fort Worth, southern Dallas areas and cities south of Dallas/Fort Worth’s Interstate 30 corridor are undergoing significant redevelopment, driven by both suburban sprawl and efforts to revitalize older areas.
In Dallas County, with a small portion extending into Kaufman County, Mesquite is on the brink of a major population boom with thousands of homes under construction. According to Mesquite’s Economic Development Department, 10,000 new homes will add at least 30,000 new residents to the city.
To the city of Dallas’ south, but still within its city limits, Hoque Global recently announced the sale of roughly 580 lots to D.R. Horton Inc. and Lennar Corp. to build townhomes and single-family homes price from $300,000 to $500,000 in its massive University Hills development. The site is just north of 1-20 near the University of North Texas at Dallas. Once complete, the development plan will have some 1,500 multifamily residents, hundreds of single-family homes, 1.5 million square feet of commercial space and over 50 acres of green space. Hoque says University Hills will be a catalyst for walkable urban development in Southern Dallas County.
A major real estate investor that builds affordable housing across many U.S. cities, will build its first project in Texas. Steinbridge Group received approval from Dallas to build 180 three-bedroom build-to-rent townhouses on land once owned by Potter’s House Church and Clay Academy Charter School. The homes will be built on three plots of land totaling about 15 acres near the existing Capella Park neighborhood, an area about 12 miles southwest of the Bishop Arts District on the west side of downtown Dallas. Spokespersons for Steinbridge said the developer likes to pick places where residents are housing burdened as home prices climb, serving the “family in the middle.”
Grand Prairie sits in a unique location with parts in Dallas, Tarrant and Ellis and Johnson Counties.
Goodland, created by Dallas real estate development firm Provident, will eventually bring over 15,000 residences at Tollway 360 and US Highway 287 in Grand Prairie. To make room for the major development, Grand Prairie’s initial annexation extends the city’s southern border by 1,500 acres. Along with multiple types of housing, Goodland will have room for shops, restaurants, schools, public and private event venues, regional sports fields and complexes, churches, trail systems and city parks. Goodland Parkway, which will connect Goodland to Grand Prairie, is set to open in December 2025. Just south of the project, construction on industrial and corporate campuses is already underway.
Development Just Keeps On Going and Going
Heading further west and south of I20, Mansfield is mostly in Tarrant County, also extends into small parts of Ellis and Johnson Counties. A quarter of its land is still undeveloped. And to the south of Fort Worth, Burleson and Crowley have seen a surge in residential development as well as the western suburb of Benbrook.
Naturally, the east-west orientation of the major cities in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex also drives growth in those directions, too. The eastern side of the Metroplex, including cities like Terrell and Forney draws activity with more affordable land opportunities. The west side of Fort Worth and areas beyond, such as Aledo and Weatherford, entice buyers seeking to move out of the city center in search of more space and a quieter lifestyle. Additionally, areas surrounding Lake Worth and Eagle Mountain Lake are desirable recreational and residential hubs.
