When you take a look at where young adults have been moving to and from since the 2020 pandemic, the trends largely mirror overall population shifts. But there are some interesting standouts when we drill down into the population of 20- to 34-year-olds— a prime apartment renter/soon-to-be-a-buyer demographic.
One word of caution on the large coastal markets: Net apartment absorption has rebounded in all of these spots. That’s in part due to the decoupling of roommates in the work-from-anywhere era, as some studies have shown. So, you can’t simply link population decline with negative demand. That said, it’s still a concerning headwind long term.
Dallas/Fort Worth led the nation with growth of 123,000 people between the ages of 20 to 34
The Dallas numbers nearly matched the combined totals for the No. 2 and No. 3-ranked metro areas — Houston and Phoenix. Of all population growth into DFW over those three years, 28% came in this one demographic — which partially helps explain huge apartment absorption numbers (which were needed given all the supply coming, too).
DFW’s 7.5% young adult growth rate ranked No. 2 nationally behind Austin (9%)
On a relative basis among the top 50-sized metro areas, just behind Austin and Dallas, other big gainers included the usual suspects: Houston, San Antonio, Phoenix, Atlanta, Charlotte, Tampa, Raleigh/Durham, Nashville, Denver and Orlando — all adding more than 20,000 young adults since 2020.
After these usual suspects, some surprises jump into the leader board. Some smaller markets are punching above their weight class. Lakeland, FL, ranked 14th nationally with 19,230 additional young adults. Greenville/Spartanburg came in right behind in 15th with 18,140. Other smaller markets with growth of more than 12k in this demographic included McAllen, TX, Oklahoma City, OK, and Boise, ID.
On a size-adjusted basis, Lakeland (14%) ranked third nationally behind only the hot-but-tiny markets of The Villages, FL (16%) and St. George, UT (15%). Close behind were Sherman, TX; Provo, UT; Myrtle Beach, SC, and Panama City, FL.
Indianapolis and Riverside Lead Young Adult Population Growth for the Midwest and West Coast
Among Midwest metros, Indianapolis led the way at 13.7k … well ahead of next-place Kansas City and Des Moines — both around 6.5k in young adult population growth.
And among West Coast metros, Riverside ranked atop at 16k, though this amounted to only 2% growth. The only other West Coast metro to see young adult population growth greater than 3k was Stockton, CA (3.8%).
Metros With Losses in Young Adult Population
Interestingly, Seattle (-850) and Portland (-4,600) actually saw slight net loss in young adult population since 2020, according to Oxford. The biggest net losses in young adult population mirrored the list of markets seeing overall population declines: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Chicago and Oakland.
To Answer The Question:
National apartment occupancy is at 94%. So, that answers the question on whether there is too many apartment completions!
Fort Worth is Texas’ Most Competitive Major Rental Market; Dallas Closely Follows
This summer, finding a rental in Fort Worth and Dallas is hardest across Texas, according to RentCafe’s latest Competitivity Report. It ranks the toughest markets at the start of rental season 2024 using a Competitiveness Index (RCI) based on five key metrics.
Fort Worth is in the lead as Texas’ most competitive major rental market, scoring an RCI of 69.4 out of 100, consistent with last year. In Fort Worth, 8 would-be renters compete for each vacant unit, with apartments getting filled in 46 days. The occupancy rate stands at 91.6%, fueled by a solid 61.4% of renters choosing to stay put and renew their leases. Plus, the share of new apartments in Fort Worth only accounts for 0.85% of inventory. That’s the second lowest share amount Texas’ major markets.
Dallas closely follows with an RCI of 67.3 out of 100, though its metrics indicate a slight softening compared to last year. With 7 renters competing for each vacant unit, apartments in this area get snatched in 44 days. With an occupancy rate of 92.8% and 56.8% of renters deciding to renew their leases, finding a rental here is not a walk in the park. The recent uptick of 1.18% in new apartment construction is a key reason why Dallas lags behind Fort Worth in rental competitiveness.
